…in conjunction with the PAC12 Conference Official Visitors and National Profile Matrix for College Football Recruiting for 2007-2011.
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Quick CFBMatrix intro: Half way through the 2011 season and our National Revised 4 Year Team Recruiting Rankings have been correct in game picks 77% of the time across all FBS games including most of UCLA’s games year to date and 84% of all PAC12 games. These were picks made in March 2011, 6 months before the season including all the non-AQ teams.
As the national leader in team recruiting stats, metrics and trends, I am in a constant search for new numbers in profiling college football team recruiting. As official visits are starting to heat up, I was curious as to the breakdown of official visit success on the team level, by conference and nationally. Being a Duck, I naturally started with the PAC12 (click here for PAC12 Article and Breakdown). I understand that there are any number of unreported unofficial visits and many commit without even a visit when they get an offer from their dream school However, official visits are very important as they serve as a significant marketing tool get more visits from top players. Take what you want from the numbers, but if you loves stats, trend and the CFBMatrix system, this stuff is for you!
I took a look at each team and its numbers and here is how the Bruins breakdown for official visits since the 2007 recruiting cycle. With coaching and player turnover as a long term factor, I used only the last 5 years to start the profiling. I will add recruiting cycles with subsequent updates.
Top months for visitors: January- 84 December – 45 (The rest are 0-8 visitors each month)
Top months to get OV to commit – Dec – 64% Jan – 62%
Average commit Rate from OV to Westwood – 58% – #1 in conf. (PAC12 conf. ave 49%)
Key observation: OV closing/commit rate was down to 48% and 47% in 2011 and 2010. Still near the conference average, but much lower than the previous 3 years of 64%, 81% and 53%. UCLA is in a huge hotbed base for recruiting and tends to have many more unofficial visits than the norm. The numbers still show that the coaching staff knows how to close on their recruiting target. CRN just couldn’t coach them.
In the PAC12, OVs have increased in numbers every month from pre-season (Aug -) all the way to January. The Bruins are above average in commit rates for November, December and January. The Bruins rarely have OVs during the season averaging just about 1 OV per month in the last 5 years from August through November. The Bruins reported only 2 OVs before the season starts and none in February and March. The PAC12 teams as a whole, have very few in February prior to LOI day.