Notes: 11/22/11: Sark and his staff have locked up their 3rd straight net negative coaching season. In a nutshell, they are underperforming the model’s expectations for their win total in each season. -2 in 2009, -1 in 2010 and with a win expected against WSU at best -2 again in 2011. The pattern was clear in the previous 2 seasons and that is why the model projected 8-4 against their FARR (field adjusted recruiting rank) and 7-5 with the coaching effect. This is not a talent issue. The PAC12 teams games in 2011 as picked in March using only our FARR system are 79% accurate. There is a coaching issue on Montlake in my opinion. Changes must be made or the Huskies and their fans will continue to under perform expectations. The FARR modeling in March for the PAC12 teams is off only 1 game of the total wins expected for all but one team and the predicted North and South finish is perfect this year. With average coaching and a good schedule this is a 8-9 win team. Husky fans should expect more and deserve better. -Dave Bartoo CFBMatrix
11/23/11: The 3rd round of CFBMatrix team recruiting ranks have been posted for the top 50. The Huskies are at #44. This is down 14 spots since the September rankings and 20 spots below their CFBMatrix 4 year national recruiting rank. Link
Washington Huskies 2011 CFBMatrix Profile
While most Husky fans are happy with the improvement over the last 2 years, I feel that Coach Sarkisian has underperformed with the talent level he inherited in 2009. Granted, things do not change overnight and it is a long road up from the depths of college football hell that the program was drug into by Coach Willingham. But, the numbers show a -3 net game effect for the last 2 years. The coaching staff appears to be very risk/reward in their coaching style, resulting in many wins and looses that went the opposite of the predictions. Recruiting is flat but maintained at a top 25 level. The bottom line is more wins should have been seen in the last 2 years. The team is highly unpredictable and is one, especially on the road, should be bet on or against very cautiously.
With flat recruiting, the best odds for 2011 at+/- one regular season game which immediately gives a range of 6-7 games. However, the CFBMatrix baseline shows a 9-3 records for 2011 without adjusting for scheduling (#12 SOS in the PAC12) or coaching. With net negative coaching and years of underperforming the talent, was 2010 a fluke or was the dropped OT pass on October 16th, 2010, the turning point for winning Husky football? More game and schedule breakdown and odds below.
Huskies Recruiting Rank Links:
2011 Schedule Overview
The 2011 schedule for the Huskies sets up well for a potential good year as it is the #12 ranked SOS in the conference (bottom 4 are virtually equal). The OOC schedule rank is average but this year they have 5 conference home games. There is plenty of opportunity early in the season to get some good wins and the Huskies could start out 4-2.
The only back to back away games come right at the end before the Apple Cup and the Huskies have a higher likelihood to loose away from home. The ‘baseline’ of the CFBMatrix matching recruiting ranks shows a 9-3 record. Their schedule does not provide for many close ‘recruiting ranking’ match-ups and the home/away variable keeps it at 9-3. They are worse at home versus the road and have just 5 road games in 2011.. Add in the coaching effect and it goes to 8-4. The recruiting trends say most likely a flat win total which backs up a 7-5 record.
The real difference makers for the season are going to be Cal, @USC and @Oregon State. If the Huskies can pick up a surprise at home versus a weak road team and an extra road win with no coaching letdowns of the last two years, this team could get to 8 or 9 wins.
Links to other Huskies stats, trends, and articles
Washington Huskies Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
Inconsistent but trending up. The Huskies chart is tough to read as it was destroyed by the lost years under one of the worst ever net negative game coaches within the CFBMatrix model. On the flip side, this has the look of a team that is nearing an elite level breakout. Not in 2010 as that 2009 class needs to be cleared out. You throw out that 2008 abomination and you have a nice upward trend in wins as well. 6-7 wins in 2011 should be a ‘most likely’ range within the trend chart. What needs to happen to fit within the ‘elite’ level is two more years of top 25 classes. A really big class, top 10-15 or better, would put Washington into the talent level of 9-10 wins expected. The PAC12 North is just getting stronger so I caution against having too high of expectations. However, once above the top 18 4 year moving average line nationally and the expectations should be Pac12 championship games and BCS bowls.
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