Alabama Crimson Tide 2011 Profile
In another other conference or division the Tide would be tremendous favorites to go undefeated. However, they are in the toughest division in college football and have had some off years in the past. One the most frustrating issues with modeling Alabama is the coaching effect. Big + one year and then down the next. Overall Coach Saban is +1 game over the last 4 years over the predicted win total.
He has his teams play very well on the road and almost as expected at home. As a top 3 recruiter and #1 4 year average going in to 2011, this team gets few opportunities to beat a team predict to beat them. 10-11 wins is the expectation for 2011.
Tide Recruiting Rank Links:
Alabama Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
This is a good schedule set up for Alabama. The OOC games are 3 cupcakes and a solid road trip. But consider this… Penn State has a home field adjusted recruiting/talent rank of #11 for 2011. In the last 4 years Alabama has played 17 road games and a team with a double digit recruiting rank has won once. I read those modeled odds and take Alabama 4-0 in the OOC games.
Within the recruiting head to head modeling, there are few threats to the Tide in 2011. They have a good schedule with the #8 SEC SOS, #8 OOC SOS and #8 overall SOS.
In the last 4 years, Alabama has lost 8 games to AQ schools. In those 8 games, all but 1 of those teams had an adjusted 4 year recruiting rank over #10. In 2011, as you can see below. there are only 3 teams with an adjusted rank in the single digits. It is nearly more likely that they win all 3 than lose just one. But Saban is a +1 coach and that puts the modeled win total at 11 games. Biggest head to head is with LSU and it is in Alabama. Model takes the home team in near even match ups.
Links to other Tide stats, trends, and articles
‘Bama Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
There has been no team over the last 4 years make a bigger percentage increase in recruiting rank than Alabama. Since Coach Saban has stepped onto campus the Tide recruiting classes have been nationally ranked in the low single digits for 4 straight years. Simply put, this is a 10+ win team every season. Only injuries, bad luck and poor scheduling can keep them under 10 wins. Net positive game coach, ultra elite talent and 7 to 8 home games per year is a recipe for success.