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Arkansas Razorbacks 2011 Profile
At +7 games, or a +2.33 games per year positive coaching effect, Coach Petrino is by far and away having the greatest impact year over year in the SEC for Arkansas winning football games. The next closest is Coach Phillips at +1 and he has only one year to factor. The talent in the SEC is very deep and most teams are +/- 1 game or less per year. His trends and pattern of performance takes a modeled 7 win team and pushes it to a likely odds of 9 wins. On the down side, they lost their starting QB which is nearly a -1 game effect nationally every year. While 2010 was clearly the best performance for the Arkansas coaching staff over the last 3 years, the 2011 season is setting up very well. Not only do they have a very good coach, but the home/away variable changes the wins expected in the baseline from 5 to 7. The coaching effect adds the last 2 games to get to 9 with 8 being the bottom of the likely outcomes.
Arkansas Recruiting Rank Links:
Arkansas Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
The real lynch pin in looking at the schedule is the OOC with Texas A&M. The CFBMatrix model has them winning that game, but it may come at a cost. That game is in the middle of a hellish 2 weeks in which they play ‘Bama, A&M and Auburn in 15 days. Winning 2 out 3 would be very good as the model expects 1 for 3 in that part of the schedule.
Since Coach Petrino and his staff have picked up +2 games on the modeling for 3 years, where do the extra wins come from? Looking at the metrics, at Ole Miss and hosting South Carolina are the best bets for in-model upsets. Although if they do win, they wouldn’t be too big of upsets, but not fully predicted nonetheless.