Florida Gators 2011 Profile
With a new coach, the modeling is always going to be more difficult to pin down. While coming from a program that was a top recruiter in the country I expect Coach Muschamp to get the Gators back in the top 10 recruiting classes. However, since 2009 (see chart at the bottom of the page) the Florida recruiting ranking has started a downtrend that probably was in parallel with other intangible and unmeasurable issues within the program. 7 wins in 2010 coupled with declining recruiting and a new coach would point to a year of 7 wins or less in 2011 as well (more on that below in the schedule overview). The difficult part of all this is that Florida is still a Tier III elite team for 2011 and a contender for the BCS title berth (see BCS Title contenders) within the CFBMatrix modeling.
Coach Urban Meyer: I put part of the profile I had for Coach Meyer from 2007-2010 that I used in the CFB Betting Guides. He was a very good coach within the CFBMatrix baseline modeling. Against the baseline for the last 48 games, the baseline was correct on 81.25% of the game outcomes predicted in April, before the season started. At home, he seemed to let his guard down as he was -6 games (3 of which were part of ’10) against the baseline and home effect values. However, on the road he was amazing on the Moneyline. 90% (21/24) of the predicted outcomes for 4 years were correct on the road for the Gators under Meyer. The 3 misses for the model, he won, even in the down 2010 season. Amazing numbers for an elite program that recruited to win.
Florida Recruiting Rankings:
2011 Gators Schedule Profile, SOS and EOS
The OOC schedule is a very typical one that we are all accustomed to seeing 3 wins and Florida State. On a neutral field or in Tallahassee the edge is to FSU. But the game is at Florida and at the end of the season. Both elite talents and this game could be one of the biggest of the year.
In a normal year with experienced coaching this would be a great schedule for the Gators. The #10 overall SOS and the #5 SOS in the conference. They get Georgia and Tennessee at home and South Carolina after a win over Vanderbilt.
As mentioned above, this is a real difficult spot to try and modeling out with only 7 wins in 2010 and a new coach with huge, but currently declining recruiting rankings. The drop in year over year and 4 year recruiting ranking immediately places the odds over 70% that this team, in 2011 will have 7 or fewer wins in 2011. The baseline model has this as a 8-4 team and the home/away national average adjusted value puts this team at 10-2. I have no coaching effect value on Muschamp and new coaches are difficult to predict. New coaches average just less than -1 one game versus the previous year. Do not sleep on this team. Most will underestimate their ability and the SEC East is a real toss up.
When there is uncertainty, I always fall back on the baseline of the model which is to go with the baseline model of 8 wins and see what they produce in 2011. There is minus 1 game for new coaching versus the previous season and +2 for average national home field adjustment in the ’11 Gators schedule. In addition the starting QB is returning but the number of return starters indicates a lower record as well.
Links to other Gators stats, trends, and articles
The Gators Recruiting and Win Trend Chart
The base for the entire CFBMatrix model and this site is in recruiting and how it affects winning. While it does not account for everything it is very significant (some programs more than others). It also is a window into the future profile of a team. I see last year 7 wins season as an ‘blimp’ in the stats. The talent is still above the elite line and there is a new coach. What the new coaching staff must do in 2011 is win more games. 7 or less is a bad sign and two years under the 7 win line and you have the wrong coach. They also need to get the recruiting trend to flatten and not continue the small downtrend. A top 25 class (should be doable) is another must for the new staff.
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