Georgia Bulldogs CFBMatrix Profile
The last 2 years performance within the CFBMatrix model has been one of the worst in the country by the Bulldogs. It is really no surprise to UGA fans, but only a handful of teams have a net negative coaching effect of -7 games over two years.
However, many forget, and the model does not, that Georgia was only a -2 team for 4 years from ’05 – ’08. The talent is still there to win the division and in ’11 that is what was modeled.
One of the big reasons is on the road. In ’10 Georgia lost 3 games on the road that were surprises in the modeling in that all 3 were to teams that UGA out recruited the previous 4 years. From ’07 to ’09 that happened just once in 12 tries. In total, without ’10, it happened just 5 times in 26 games. If you are going to beat Georgia after having them out recruit you, it is much more likely to happen in Athens. To the modeling, it is as simple as taking care of business at home and getting back to the old road trends and metrics. The schedule is going to play a big role for the Bulldogs in 2011.
Georgia Recruiting Rankings:
Georgia Bulldogs Schedule, SOS & EOS Breakdown
One way to help break a bad trend is a good schedule. In the SEC, they are all tough but someone has to have the easiest one and that belongs to Georgia. The lowest CFBMatrix SOS in conference play and the #9 SOS in OOC games makes the lowest SOS number overall for SEC teams.
In OOC play this team should be 4-0. While many expect Boise to win that game, the model sees that as a disasterous start to the season at home. At Georgia Tech is a solid OOC game, but one prior to 2010 was a virtual lock for a win.
In conference play there is no LSU, Alabama or Arkansas. Instead they have Mississippi State, Vandy and Kentucky on the schedule. This is a conference schedule set up to win the SEC East. The home games that could be issues are just Auburn and South Carolina and on the road Tennessee and Ole Miss. In a nutshell that is 8 ‘should be locks’ wins with 4 in question. Win the 8, split the 4 and they are 10-2 and in the SEC title game.
Links to other Bulldogs stats, trends, and articles
Georgia Bulldogs Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
Ultra elite recruiting is a gift that has been lost in the poor performances of 2009 and 2010. But make no mistake in thinking the Bulldogs cannot compete. They still pull elite talent and can beat anyone on any day. If the losing continues, the coaching staff will be changed. 3 down years is usually the max a head coach gets, with 4 stretching it. This is a team that is winning well below its recruiting average and should be 9+ wins annually.