Mississippi State 2011 CFBMatrix Profile
The profile of the team is part of the recruiting baseline and final record analysis for the Bulldogs. The 4 year recruiting ranking is the baseline for determining the first step in the record predictor process. The baseline win/loss predictor has been correct 77% of the time on all regular season games since 2009. Recruiting is a concern as it has dropped for two consecutive years. The coaching staff has a net game effect of 0 after 2 years. Final records and analysis predictions will be made after June 2011 when all teams have available profiles. Full breakdown of home/away trends and results for the Bulldogs are found in the Best Bets guides.
Mississippi State Recruiting Rankings:
2011 Schedule Overview
Couple of notes right away. Although I have not posted it yet, the conference SOS for Mississippi State is brutal and will likely be one of the toughest in the country in 2011. That is going to be an intangible affect on the season. Besides the SOS and prediction to the baseline (6-6) the team have negative trends in one year and 4 year recruiting classes. Over 70% of the time, that mean fewer wins the following season. Most of the games are cut and dry with highly likely losses and wins. The close ones are @Kentucky and home with Mississippi. The Egg Bowl is very likely to be for a bowl berth for the Bulldogs.
Links to other Bulldogs stats, trends, and articles
Mississippi State Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
This is a optimistic chart for Bulldog fans! From 2008 through 2011, the team has been a solid 30-35 4 year recruiting rank team. That is not high for the SEC, but the win total is trending up as well. The good coaches as able to get the line for games won at or above the two recruiting ranking lines. There is still room for improve but clearly the team is headed in the right direction. However, the 2011 recruiting class hurt for this year and needs to improve. I expect a step back or sideways in 2011 (7 or fewer wins than ’10) but long term is looking up. The recruiting class needs to be better in 2012 versus 2011.
A special Thank You to my friends Bo Bounds and Cooper Veazey of the Out of Bounds Show on FM 105.9 The Zone for having me on their show. It was a real honor for them to embrace the CFBMatrix modeling and take a chance having me on the air. Looking forward to more segments. Catch the first 3 segments in our Audio Archive.
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