Ole’ Miss Rebels

Ole Miss 2011 CFBMatrix Profile

It all starts with recruiting, and Mississippi has out-recruited all but 19 teams over the last 4 years.  What I find interesting, is that the feedback on non-qualifiers and kids that never make it to campus, I get from fans comes loudest out of Mississippi.  Keep in mind that every school has its non-quals and problems kids, so in the modeling I see it as a wash across the country.  If it is a constant and significant issue, that is a coaching problem, not a recruiting problem.  I have seen my share of assistants and recruiting coordinators get run by not doing their homework on making sure that they qualify (because Rivals, Scout, 247Sports and ESPN are not all overrating Ole Miss Players together over a 4 year period).

Ole Miss is in the SEC, and in the toughest division in College Football so wins are tough, but at -3 games, 2010 was a very poor effort,  However, Coach Nutt was +2 each of the previous 2 years and was an overachiever.   This is a big reason why fans are uneasy about his tenure because they built up in their mind very high expectations.  Recruiting is fairly stable (bordering elite) and the coaching staff has a net game effect of +1 after 3 years.  Another -3 net game year and Nutt is on the hot seat.  He will need to be sub .500 to get that number.

Ole Miss Composite Recruiting Rankings:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings

Ole Miss Depth Chart 2011

Ole Miss 2011 Schedule and SOS/EOS Modeling

We go by the division or conference based on who you play.  Since the SEC does not play all team each year, we do the rankings by divisions for those conferences.  We will be posting a full ranking page for all teams when each is complete in the next couple of months.

Middle of the pack is the best way to describe the 2011 SOS and EOS for Mississippi.  The #5 toughest overall SOS, #4 non conference SOS and they catch a break (sort of in the toughest division in the country) with the lowest ranked SEC West SOS and #10 in the SEC.  All SEC SOS/EOS Rankings

The Rebels have been great with the simple baseline model ON THE ROAD with the CFBMatrix hitting on 14 of 18 games correctly.  Home has been the jinx with more unseen loses in the model than wins.  4 of the 5 road games should be won and this season should start out 3-0.  A poor start could spell trouble for 2011.

There are a bunch of great teams coming into town this year with Georgia, Alabama and Auburn likely losses.  The game of the year for Ole Miss, at least the one that may tip the scales is October 22 when the Hogs come to town.  Win it and the Egg Bowl won’t be for a bowl berth and a .500 season.

Links to other Rebel stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios

Team Records – Odds Matrix

Returning Starters (All teams)

Ole Miss Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

This is a real inconsistent chart.  The first thing I notice, is that I was right in 2007 that the University needed a coaching change.  The recruited talent was way too high for 3-4 wins per year.  2008 and 2009 looked like the start of something special as the results and modeling were playing out very well until the bottom fell out in 2010.

This team and coaching staff are at huge crossroads in 2011.  Ole Miss is on the verge of crossing the ‘elite’ line into BCS title contention territory (all winners/losers of last 10 were above it), but does not have the record to back it up.  It is time to win and now.  Another failure in 2011 and the odds that this staff can right the ship become increasingly distant.  Once a coach goes into net negative effect for a few years, it is very unlikely they get out of it.  Yes, the SEC and particularly the West division is the strongest in college football.  And Ole Miss would have top 3-4 talent in any other conference.  Nevertheless, anything less than a bowl game for this team and talent is a failure.

A special Thank You to my friends Bo Bounds and Cooper Veazey of the Out of Bounds Show on FM 105.9 The Zone for having me on their show.  It was a real honor for them to embrace the CFBMatrix modeling and take a chance having me on the air.  Looking forward to more segments.   Catch the first 3 segments in our Audio Archive.

Follow these folks on Twitter for the best and most information on the Mississippi State Bulldogs





One Response to Ole’ Miss Rebels

  1. Pingback: Bartoo’s College Football Matrix examines Ole Miss | Y'all Sports

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