December 31, 2011
By Dave Bartoo
Founder of the CFBMatrix system of CFB Analysis.
The National Leader in Team Recruiting Based Metrics, Data and Information
Official Recruiting Visits – SEC
You follow us @CFBMatrix, you have read the articles, gone over your team’s page and know that our Field Adjusted Recruiting Rank (FARR) system for picking every FBS game in the pre-season finished at nearly 80% correct for all SEC games! The CFBMatrix was recognized as the #1 national publication for picking the SEC conference standings in the pre-season. As the national leader in recruiting trends, metrics and predictability, I am offering up one more nugget of information in the 2011 season. Official Visits (OV) odds and metrics.
Have you ever wondered what are your odds if you can just get a kid to campus? Wonder no more. I break down every team, conference and national number of the next month so you are ready for the biggest part of the annual recruiting cycle : December and January.
I hear you out there, “But what about unofficial visits?”. They occur quite frequently and most often in programs that have a recruit living nearby to make the trip easier. However, the OVs are recorded and of greater value as they serve to market the program and provide a benchmark in which we can compare all FBS programs.
CLICK TO PRINT THE SEC Official Visitor Matrix: SEC Official Visitor Matrix
With recruits allowed up to 5 OVs, it was a small surprise that the average commit rate from OVs in the SEC was over 54%. There is a pretty clear line of success between Arkansas and Mississippi on the over 50% and under 50% commit break. When going head to head, it is close to a coin flip for most schools; however, some schools clearly have a greater likelihood of getting a commitment from a recruit if they get them to visit. The metric that would enhance the review is a breakdown of visits and commits from ranked kids.
I was surprised at the closing rate of the bottom 3 of Georgia, Tennessee and Florida. I assumed it would be higher, but this could indicate a greater reliance on in-state commits and unofficial visits. This may indicate that recruiting kids may be slightly easier at those schools or efforts to get more and the best available to visit are not high on a sense of urgency for recruiting.
Total OVs and Total OV commits by team
With most teams near or above the 50% commit to OV mark, it is really a numbers game for those outside of major populations. Georgia and Tennessee (46% and 38% commit rate) have below average numbers for OVs. However, being in the center of of so many recruiting hotbeds, they host many more unofficial visits than some of the other SEC schools with higher OV numbers.
Vanderblt is very interesting in that that have a very low number of OVs and a average commit rate. Are they being to o picky in their strategy? Stanford, another ‘academic’ school, has over 3 times the OV in the same period and a high commit rate (Link to PAC12 OV/Commits).
The oddball seems to be Mississippi. The leader in OVs and commits from OVs, yet they are among the worst recruiters (#34R) on average over the last 5 years. many of the kids the get to commit do not make it to campus or leave the team. There was clearly a lack of strategy and shotgun approach to recruiting in Oxford the last 5 years. Kentucky and Vandy have very low visit numbers and are #1 and #2 for lowest 4 year recruiting rank as a team. Georgia and Tennessee have low OV volume, but have excellent classes (#6RR and #13RR last 4 years). My question is could they be doing even better? Either way in the CFBMatrix you recruit to win, not win to recruit.
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