South Carolina Gamecocks 2011 Profile
Up until the 2010 season, Coach Spurrier and the Gamecocks fit very well within the CFBMatrix model. ’10 was a +2 game effect bringing him up to +1 over the last 4 years against the model. The most surprising part of ’10 is the number of big wins (4) and surprise loses (2) for South Carolina. That season sure could have been very different in both directions.
At just +1 over 4 years, the coaching effect in total is very little over 4 years. This team usually plays to it’s recruiting level as expected. With winning and recruiting both on the rise, I expect South Carolina to be challenge for SEC East titles. But until they push into better recruiting numbers, they not move into the elite levels of college football.
Gamecocks Recruiting Rank Links:
South Carolina 2011 Schedule Breakdown
South Carolina, over the last 4 years has some great numbers within the model. In the last 48 games they have played, 18 were against teams that out recruited them in my 4 year moving average national recruiting ranking. They won 6 of those 18 games. this year they have four of those match ups so in reading the model the odds are best that they win one of those four games.
The other 30 games that they played against teams they out recruited they won 24 times. In those 6 losses they played a team that had a 4 year national rank in my system in the 20s or it was Vanderbilt. This year of the 8 teams they out recruited 5 are not ranked in the 20s or named Vanderbilt. Stick to the odds… that’s 5 wins.
The other 3 are Vandy, Arkansas (#25) and Clemson (#23). Again, with the number put up by the Gamecocks, we can expect them to win 2 or 3 of these games as they are upset by this ‘group’ less than 20% of the time. That gives me a total of 8 to 9 wins.
Links to other Gamecock stats, trends, and articles
Gamecocks Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
Write up pending