Tennessee Volunteers

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Tennessee Volunteers 2011 Profile

In 2010, Coach Dooley and the Vols did almost exactly as expected in the CFBMatrix model in 11 of 12 games.  The only blip was a home loss, and that certainly was not an upset.

This is a big year and big opportunity for the Volunteers.  Florida has a new coach, Georgia has been struggling over the last 2 years and South Carolina is returning just 13 starters.

Tennessee recruiting has been stabilized and is still at an elite level.  I modeled them out as a 7 win team in 2010 and a 9 win team in 2011.  6-6 for 2011 is not going to go far and is setting up a trend of under performance.  I expect 8 wins for 2011 and a 4th place finish, but this team could easily go 9-3 and contend for a division title.

Vols Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

2011 Tennessee Roster/Depth Chart

Tennessee Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

It is a really good schedule for the Vols in 2011.  2 of the top 3 in the SEC East come to Knoxville and they do not have to play Alabama or Auburn.  This is set up for a very good year if Coach Dooley can win what they are supposed to win at home and sneak one on the road.

The OCC schedule SOS is the second easiest in the conference and their EOS is a massive 81.3.  4-0 in OOC.  Period.  All the OOC games are at home and anything less than 4 Ws is a poor performance.

In the SEC the Vols model out at 4 wins with straight recruiting comparisons and 5 with a +/- adjustment for home games.  The difference in 4-6 conference wins will be the home games with Georgia and LSU as well as the road game at Arkansas.  Win one of these 3, as expected due to the current -1 game coaching effect and they likely finish 4th in the division.  2 wins, could put them in 2nd in the SEC East.

Links to other Vols stats, trends, and articles

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios

Team Records – Odds Matrix

Returning Starters (All teams)

Tennessee Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

This is not a good looking chart for future success.  Both wins and recruiting are trending down and the trends need to be broken soon.  It is positive that recruiting has stabilized and the 2006 and 2008 classes are almost cleared off the shelf.  Dooley needs to get the win totals up from the 5-7 range they have been in for a few years.  This team has stayed above the elite BCS title line (no team has made the BCS title game that recruited below that line).  Consistent recruiting and a good SEC schedule break could get the Vols back into 9-10 wins and a SEC championship game.

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