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Tennessee Volunteers 2011 Profile
Tennessee recruiting has been stabilized and is still at an elite level. I modeled them out as a 7 win team in 2010 and a 9 win team in 2011. 6-6 for 2011 is not going to go far and is setting up a trend of under performance. I expect 8 wins for 2011 and a 4th place finish, but this team could easily go 9-3 and contend for a division title.
Vols Recruiting Rank Links:
Tennessee Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
It is a really good schedule for the Vols in 2011. 2 of the top 3 in the SEC East come to Knoxville and they do not have to play Alabama or Auburn. This is set up for a very good year if Coach Dooley can win what they are supposed to win at home and sneak one on the road.
The OCC schedule SOS is the second easiest in the conference and their EOS is a massive 81.3. 4-0 in OOC. Period. All the OOC games are at home and anything less than 4 Ws is a poor performance.
In the SEC the Vols model out at 4 wins with straight recruiting comparisons and 5 with a +/- adjustment for home games. The difference in 4-6 conference wins will be the home games with Georgia and LSU as well as the road game at Arkansas. Win one of these 3, as expected due to the current -1 game coaching effect and they likely finish 4th in the division. 2 wins, could put them in 2nd in the SEC East.
Links to other Vols stats, trends, and articles
Tennessee Win/Recruiting Trend Chart
This is not a good looking chart for future success. Both wins and recruiting are trending down and the trends need to be broken soon. It is positive that recruiting has stabilized and the 2006 and 2008 classes are almost cleared off the shelf. Dooley needs to get the win totals up from the 5-7 range they have been in for a few years. This team has stayed above the elite BCS title line (no team has made the BCS title game that recruited below that line). Consistent recruiting and a good SEC schedule break could get the Vols back into 9-10 wins and a SEC championship game.