Blog/Info Notes: Follow us @cfbmatrix on twitter , email firstname.lastname@example.org w/ team/player updates or questions and click on any chart/picture for bigger view or to print.
Vanderbilt Commodores 2011 Profile
There is no AQ school with a bigger gap in recruited talent versus the average class in a major conference than Vanderbilt. Simply put, any conference win is a great one and an upset. Given the coaching trends in the SEC, a conference win will likely come on the road.
It is very uncommon for a team to go 0-8 in conference play, so the odds favor one conference win, but the model with the baseline recruiting comparison and home/away variables shows 0-8 in the SEC.
With a new coach for 2011, there are no trends or metrics that can guide us in a particular direction. We know that most 2-10 teams win as many or more games the following year. New coaches are also just -.53 games in their first year versus the previous year. These metrics make a 2 win season less likely than a 3 win season, and if Hamilton does well, they can pull out 4 wins in 2011.
Vanderbilt Recruiting Rank Links:
Vanderbilt Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown
The OOC schedule is a very smart one for Vanderbilt. The CFBMatrix modeling expects a 3-1 OOC record and the game at Wake Forest is very winnable. They have out recruited Wake, but the home field tips the scales to the Demon Deacons for the best odds to win that game.
Even though Vanderbilt is in the SEC East, they still have the 3 toughest SOS in the conference. They will not win a conference road game and Mississippi and Kentucky are their best chances for a home victory. 2 conference wins max, 0 at the worst. The model will take 1 SEC win as the most probable.