’11 National CFBMatrix SOS – Conference Games

Before going into the rankings or charts please read and understand the importance of the 4 year recruiting ranking in the  CFBMatrix modeling.   Over the last 6 college football seasons 68% of all AQ OOC and Conference games have the winner/loser decided right on the best 4 year recruiter.  Home, away, conference, OOC it does not matter.  So when you compare the SEC to the Big Ten team to team, each SEC is going to have a better 4 year recruiting average than it’s Big Ten counterpart.  Knowing that 4,544 AQ games over 6 years have been won 68% of the time by the best recruiter, the SEC would beat the Big Ten in a round robin 68% of the time.

If after those numbers and reading through the site you don’t believe that our SOS and EOS ranking don’t have merit, you simply want to believe whatever is most in favor of your team.  That is OK as well as it is all for fun and comparison.   The favorite ‘SOS’ ranking is usually the one that rates any one particular fan’s team the toughest.   It can be very subjective and we provide our numbers as just another reference point.  The SOS numbers we provide are an average strength of each game played in conference versus the odds of losing any conference game scheduled.

Our methods for calculating the SOS and EOS of every team is very easy to understand.  First, we don’t change it throughout the year like the rest of the “computer” models.  Why?  Because at the beginning of each season, every team has a certain level of talent and size and a fixed home/away schedule.  These two factors alone predict nearly 80% of all the AQ teams football games in the last 6 years and will be no different in 2011.  For my modeling, the SOS is a simple as how good does the team you are playing recruit over the last 4 years plus the variable for each team if the game on the road or at home.

As in all of the metrics in the site, they are rooted in recruiting but there are some exceptions to scheduling.  For example if your team is playing Virginia Tech or LSU on the road, you have a better chance for an upset than at home, thereby tweeting an SOS to reflect the toughness of teams on the road (or at home).

Link: 2011 OOC Schedule SOS Rankings
Link: 2011 Total Schedule SOS Rankings

The conference numbers this year, more than ever, will prove to be very polarizing.  You will love them or hate them, but when recruiting wins nearly 70% of all games straight up and your division and/or conference recruits at a level much higher than the rest of the country, how is the SEC conference team SOS not through the roof?

The SOS score for Auburn is the lowest composite number in 6 years.  In estimated numbers, the average 4 year national ranking for all 8 SEC conference games is near #13 per team.  Contrast that with Boise and TCU whose toughest SINGLE game 4 year average recruiting ranking is #66 and #62 respectively.  The SEC teams are followed by a slew of poorly talented teams and second tier recruiting teams with very tough schedules.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is the Big East whose best team, WVU #29 4 year composite, would not even be in the top half of the SEC.  Although balanced in talent, the Big East teams have conference SOS numbers that would not even be tougher than that of our #1 OOC SOS team, the Trojans.

Average Conference SOS per game 2011

#1 SEC – 15.7
#2 PAC 12 – 31.1
#3 ACC – 31.2
#4 BIG 12 – 32.4
#5 BIG Ten – 33.4
#6 Big East – 43.8

2011 Conference SOS CFBMatrix Rankings

Rank Team SOS Score
1 Auburn 9.1 24 Stanford 29.8 47 Michigan 34.8
2 Mississippi State 11.3 25 Nebraska 29.9 48 Washington 34.8
3 Vanderbilt 13.4 26 Oregon State 30.0 49 Minnesota 35.0
4 Arkansas 14.8 27 Clemson 30.3 50 North Carolina 35.4
5 Florida 14.9 28 Northwestern 30.4 51 Florida State 35.5
6 Kentucky 15.1 29 Virginia 30.8 52 Utah 35.9
7 Tennessee 16.1 30 Oklahoma State 30.9 53 Illinois 36.0
8 Alabama 16.5 31 Kansas 30.9 54 Texas 36.2
9 LSU 17.3 32 Kansas State 30.9 55 Virginia Tech 36.5
10 Mississippi 17.8 33 Miami (FL) 31.0 56 UCLA 37.0
11 South Carolina 19.8 34 Maryland 31.1 57 Penn State 38.4
12 Georgia 22.0 35 Texas Tech 31.8 58 Louisville 40.0
13 Wake Forest 24.1 36 Wisconsin 31.9 59 Oklahoma 40.0
14 California 25.6 37 North Carolina State 32.0 60 Connecticut 40.9
15 Colorado 26.1 38 Oregon 32.1 61 Syracuse 41.0
16 Baylor 26.4 39 Ohio State 32.1 62 Cincinnati 43.7
17 Iowa State 26.4 40 USC 32.1 63 South Florida
44.1
18 Arizona 27.0 41 Missouri 32.7 64 Rutgers 46.7
19 Washington State 27.6 42 Texas A&M 32.8 65 West Virginia 46.7
20 Boston College 29.0 43 Arizona State 33.6 66 Pittsburgh 46.9
21 Georgia Tech 29.4 44 Michigan State 34.0 67 TCU 80.6
22 Purdue 29.5 45 Indiana 34.3 68 Boise State 83.4
23 Duke 29.8 46 Iowa 34.4

Dedicated to Topwater Trout on TigerDroppings for being the first in asking why not the Conference SOS numbers too? (In defense of SEC OOC SOS overall SOS rank of #6)

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