The Charlie Weis College Football Anti-Coach of the Year – 2011

This page will track all the net negative game coaches.  Every time a coach ‘beats’ the Matrix model in a predicted loss they will earn +1 game effect.  Each loss when a win was predicted is a -1 effect.  The coach with the greatest negative effect in 2011 with be our CFBMatrix Anti-Coach of the Year.

I have a number of reasons for feeling that this methodology is very good for considering the best and worst ‘coaching’ job for 2011.  (1) There is no media, popularity or emotional bias, (2) The CFBMatrix was the #2 national publication for 2011 in picking the conference finishes of the AQ schools including #1 in the SEC, ACC and PAC12, (3) it uses the same stats for picking the games and it does in  determining the best coaching job and (4) take a look at how the Anti-Coach of the Year and Hottest Seats in Football turned out using the same way of +/- for coaching effect.  To be a Anti-Coach of the Year, I see it as doing less with more.  The elite recruiters like Miles, Saban, Kelly, Hoke, etc should be doing well and winning a lot of games.  The CFBMatrix model has already conclusively proven that fact.

The 2011 season has provided a clear cut answer for the Anti-Coach of the Year, like our defending 2010 Anti-COY Mack Brown when he posted an astonishing -7 in 2010 beating out Richt of Georgia and Kiffen of USC, both at -5 games.

In 2011, the undisputed Anti-Coach of the Year was Houston Nutt at Ole Miss.  This award goes well beyond just the single season of ineptitude.  His efforts over the course of his 3 years have culminated in this recognition.  Modeled for 7 wins in 2011, Nutt and his staff lost 5 of those 7 on the way to a -5 rating.  He had no upset wins in the other 5 games so, they outcoached no one with a better FARR.  His resume for this award included a home loss in week 1 to BYU and was a tiny window into what was to come in 2011.  A loss at Vanderbilt in week 3 was the first of 8 straight SEC losses.  While the talent gap was not a big as most feel, the home loss to Arkansas was in large part good coach versus out coached.  The loss at Kentucky and the brutal dismantling at home at the hands of Louisiana Tech was the last straw.  He had 5 shots to get a upset win at home but got beat every time.  While not factored into the season and the award, Nutt and his staff have lost the majority of their top recruits over the last 3 years which lead to the disastrous 2011 season.

There were 6 runners-up that finished at -4 games.  One was an interim Head Coach (Finkell) whom I tossed out due to his pre-season coaching status.  Two of  them were new coaches for 2011 (Edsall and Golden).  Their performance are very bad harbingers of what is likely to come for their careers.   Sherman of Texas A&M has already been fired.  Derek Dooley of Tennessee and Mack Brown of Texas are no strangers to under performing the Matrix expectations.

When looking at the best or worst I look at opportunity and location.  For a team like Texas and Miami, they have more opportunities as better recruiters to lose predicted wins in the Matrix.  Texas, if coached well, had one of the few potential 11+ win schedules in the country.  On the flip side, Maryland had a predicted 6-6 schedule (-1 game for a new coach) but managed only 2 wins out of 6 predicted.  2-10, in my view, is much worse than 7-5.  The second part is where were the loses?  There is a home field advantage in nearly every stadium in the country so a lose on the road is less of a surprise.  It is also easier on your boosters and season ticket holders as a home loss is money. tickets, time and other sunk cost to supporting your team.  Edsall and Golden both lost 3 home games they were picked to win.  Everyone else had two home upset loses or less in the country (Spaziani at BC had 3 but also pulled off some upset wins).

2011 CFBMatrix Charlie Weis Anti-Coach of the Year* – Houston Nutt -5 Games

Runner Ups at -4 Games
 Randy Edsall, Maryland   Al Golden, Miami  Mike Sherman, Texas A&M 
Derek Dooley, Tennessee  Mack Brown, Texas

2011 Conference Net Negative Coach Effect Leaders
ACC – Al Golden, Miami  and Randy Edsall, Maryland -4 games
SEC –  Houston Nutt, Ole Miss -5 Games
Big Ten – Ron Zook, Illinois and Kevin Wilson, Indiana -3 Games
PAC12 – Dennis Erickson, ASU and Steve Sarkesian, Washington -2 Games
Big12 – Mike Sherman Texas A&M and Mack Brown – Texas -4 games
Big East – Skip Holtz – South Florida and Todd Graham – Pitt -2 Games

2011 Stats

Rankings
#1
-5 Houston Nutt – Ole Miss/SEC -2 games home / -2 road games – Fired Nov 2011

#2 -4 Randy Edsall – Maryland/ACC -3 home games -1 road
#3
-4 Al Golden – Miami (Fl)/ACC -1 game (road) -3 games (home)
#4 -4 Mike Sherman – Texas A&M  -2 games home -2 games road/neutral – Fired Dec 2011
#5 -4 Derek Dooley – Tennessee/SEC  -2 home -2 road
#6 -4 Mack Brown – Texas -2 home -2 road

#7 -4 Luke Finkell – Ohio State/-2 home -2 road – Interim HC
 
 
Honorable Mention
-3 Kevin Wilson – Indiana/Big Ten -2 games (road)  -1 game (home)
-3 Ron Zook – Illinois – Fired

-3 Tommy Tuberville – Texas Tech
-3 Everett Withers  – North Carolina/ACC – Interim HC
-3 Rick Neuheisel – UCLA/PAC12 -3 games (road) – Fired
-3 Brian Kelly – Notre Dame/Indp -2 games home
– 1 road
-3 Will Muschamp – Florida
-3 Jimbo Fisher – Florida State
 
Tied for with -2 games
-2 Skip Holtz – South Florida
-2 Frank Spaziani – Boston College

-2 Todd Graham – Pittsburgh
-2 Dennis Erickson – Arizona State
-2 Steve Sarkisian Washington
-2 Brady Hoke – Michigan
-2 Bob Stoops – Oklahoma

2010 Charlie Weis Anti-Coach of the Year* – Mack Brown – Texas -7 Games

Runner ups – M. Richt -5 games (Georgia) and Lane Kiffin -5 games (USC)

*Named after Charlie Weis for being the first coach since we started modeling in 2005 to post a -6 net game effect for a season.  It was almost the Ty Willingham award for his efforts at UW in posting a -6 along with the epic and totally unlikely 0-12 season.

3 Responses to The Charlie Weis College Football Anti-Coach of the Year – 2011

  1. GoBlue says:

    Hoke is -2? Michigan was 11-2. Were they expected to be undefeated, and any loss was underperformance?

    • cfbmatrix says:

      Exactly! While a 10-2 regular season off a 11-1 prediction isn’t terrible, it shows the potential of UM and the gap in talent in the Big Ten. -2 is a long ways from even -3 or worse. The odds of -3 or worse from the pre-season predictions by the Matrix charts is less than 20%. I expect UM to be 10+ wins every year. While it is not likely to happen, that is what the numbers expect.

      Thanks for reading and commenting!
      – Dave, CFBMatrix

    • cfbmatrix says:

      I am sure you are not too down on the CFBMatrix. I think it may have been the only national publication that put UM into the final top 25 rankings in the pre-season. – Dave

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