A review of year over year win total metrics and percentages
By Dave Bartoo
Founder: CFBMatrix Football Trends, Metrics and Predictor Modeling
Since 2001, there have been 386 win/loss records for AQ schools involving 12 game seasons*. While this is not a large sample size, it can provide a window of expectations for expected outcomes for every team in the country. This is certainly not a tell all but it gives a good snapshot of your team and where to set your inner-homer bar to start the season. Here is one of the many hard hitting stats from this chart. 62% of all teams that win 8 or more games in a 12 game season since 2001, win fewer games the following year! Let’s breakdown the chart for each AQ team in 2011.
Note: This chart will be more advanced and updated before the season start in Best Bets Subscribers with recruiting trends noted for each percentage point on the Matrix.
12 Win Teams– There have been only 10 teams since 2001 to go 12-0 and only one has repeated the feat the following year. 40% of those teams were able to put up 10+ wins following the 12-0 run so don’t expect another 12 win season from Auburn or Oregon. It does not mean that a good season is around the corner for either one. While both have elite recruiting ranks above the BCS Berth Line in my model, 3 of the ten teams coming off undefeated season won 4 and 5 games respectively.
4 Yr Recruiting Rank 10 16
11 Win Teams – Of the 25 times a team has gone 11-1 in the last nine year, only 5 have followed it up with a 12-0 season. 20% is a good number, but 76% of those teams go 10 wins or less. The one team that would model the best and most likely to accomplish this feat is Ohio State with the other 3 match the trends of the 3 out 4 regressing in wins. For all the teams, the best odds are 7 to 10 wins at 72%. However, this is not a normal year at Ohio State so is there a team that can step up and go 12-0 in this group? The model does not forecast that happen with anything up very low odds for any of these four.
Teams Stanford Michigan State Ohio State Wisconsin
4 Yr Recruiting Rank 26 31 7 49
10 Wins – This is a very interesting group as fans for each team have very high hopes for 2011. However, the numbers do not play out well for the 10 win teams. Only one time in the last 43 times a team had 10 regular season wins did they produce a 12 win regular season the following year. On top of that only 5 of the 43 won 11 games. In the simplest terms, one of these teams will win 11+ and the other 6 will be between 10 and 7 wins with only a 10% chance of 6 or fewer from this group. Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma State would be the mostly likely to sink below 10 wins.
4 Yr Recruiting Rank 4 9 35 22 32 28 25
9 Wins – 2 National Title favorites and a bunch of ‘darkhorse’ teams. Classic human emotion going with teams with good to elite talent coming off a solid season to note them as having an outside chance. Of these 5 teams, the matrix, by the numbers, has 1 to 2 of the five having 10 or more wins, one with 9 and the other 2-3 having 8 or fewer wins in 2011. Stick with the talent and expect Florida State and Alabama to be those with 10+ wins and West Virginia with less than 9. It is very interesting that no team has gone 9-3 since 2001 and shot up to 12-0 the next year.
4 Yr Recruiting Rank 1 19 5 17 29
8 Wins – Now we are getting into no-mans-land with the 8 wins teams. USC shouldn’t be here with their talent and it is the last year to have a really good season before the scholarship reductions cripple depth and talent. The chart has 65% (34/52) of the teams coming off 8 wins to having 8 or fewer wins the following year. In following the stats, one of these teams is going to have 9+ wins and two will have 7 or fewer. Of all these teams in the model, only USC is a 8+ win team.
4 Yr Recruiting Rank 30 2 80 37 34
7 Wins – The most frequently obtained record since 2001 is 7-5 and the following year results are widely varied. 78% percent of these teams are most likely to be within +/- 2 games of the 7 win season. The numbers also point to at least one of these teams having 10+ wins and 2 with the likelihood of finishing 2011 with 4 or fewer wins. As always, stick with the talent (Florida, Notre Dame) for exceeding wins and expect the talent-less to falter (K State, NWestern).
6 Wins -Statistically, if your team is in this group, you have reason to be excited and look forward to the 2011 season. Only 37 percent of the teams (out of 43) have gone on to a 5-7 or worse record coming off a 6-6 season. One of these teams will likely be at 6-6 again and the rest 7+ wins are the best odds. Of the 43, 3 of those teams went on to go 11-1 the following year. They only one capable of that is Georgia, but the last two years of coaching effect go against the Bulldogs. One of these teams will be at 4-8 or worse and put a coach on the hot seat for 2012, or get them released at the end of the season.
4 Yr Recruiting Rank 6 45 36 60 24 23 46 40 44
5 Wins – This is a very curious group of teams. We have the elite (Texas), the chronic under-performer (Cal), the over-achiever (Oregon State/Riley) and a splash of ‘how in the !@$#$ did they get to 5 wins last year?’ Texas should be a national title contender but the numbers are against them. They need at least 10 and likely 11 wins to get into a BCS title game. However, there have been 38 teams with 5-7 records and none have ever reached 10 wins the following year and only 1 got to 9 wins. Odds in the chart gives us most likely 3 or 4 of these teams will be over 5 wins in 2011 with 2 or 3 (Colorado, Indiana, ISU) at 5 wins or worse.
4 Yr Recruiting Rank 27 68 48 3 63 71
4 Wins – 65% of these teams, if the matrix form holds, will be at 5+ or more wins in 2011. One of them has good odds of being over .500 and two should be in a bowl. Look at the recruiting rankings and you can see how bad UCLA and Mississippi performed in 2010. If either one doesn’t make a bowl then expect that coach to be sent on his way, especially Coach Neuheisel who has been under-performing the talent for 4 years. Two of these teams will be under 4 wins and have a very disappointing season.
4 Yr. M.A Recruiting Rank 20 15 50 59 39 57
3 Wins – Easy math here folks. Although there are just 10 teams with 3-9 seasons since 2001, they break down in to 25/25/50. So by the numbers in 2011, one team is going down in wins, one will have 3 again and 2 will be 4+ for 2011. One thing for sure, they are all at the bottom half of their conferences in talent and expectations.
Teams Duke Kansas Minnesota Wake Forest
4 Yr. M.A Recruiting Rank 64 51 52 67
2 Wins – Only ten times has a team pulled a 2-10 since 2001 and only one team followed up with a 1 win season. The talent for both these teams is sub-par and Vandy is in the toughest conference in football. Washington State has a much easier schedule in 2011 and should be the one to better their record. Vandy is still likely to improve but if either one fail to get to 2+ wins, there may be a coaching change in the near future.
4 Yr. M.A Recruiting Rank 61 55
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*For the purpose of consistency in numbers and trends, I threw out all 13 and 11 game season. Since 2006 nearly every team schedule involves 12 regular season games. There are also no non-AQ teams due to their very weak scheduling, minimal balance in conferences and lack of overall talent.