Thru: June 29, 2011
Just a quick snapshot of AQ teams returning starters. Scroll down for By-Conference breakdowns as well as the non- AQs at the bottom of the page (click on charts for bigger /printable view).
A lot of fans like these returning starter stats, but it really breaks down to overall talent, coaching and scheduling (correlations I have proven in the modeling). Would you rather have Vandy’s 21 starters or Florida’s 12? 44 of 68 teams have their starting quarterback from 2010 returning, but neither the Oregon Ducks nor the Auburn Tigers had a returning starting QB last year. In 2010 the Oregon Ducks returned 18 starters, so did Washington State and they both finished the season in first and last, the same as 2009. As with most of the numbers, you as a fan, read, process and interpret it into your own conclusion.
However, there are some good numbers when teamed with returning starters and a returning QB. Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org for some 2010 trends/results metrics and to get the full article breakdown before it is posted.
Are the results really based in returning starters or scheduling? Until proven or shown to correlate, I feel it is schedule and talent driven (as I have already proven it correlates). Here is one of many:
- In 2010 teams with a returning QB posted a +.39 games increase over 2009 and teams with a new QB were down -.56 games.
- Teams with fewer than 16 returning starters and no returning starting QB (13) were down -16 games from 2009, no returning QB and 16 or more starters back (12 teams) plus 6 games.
- Teams with a returning starting QB and less than 13 total returning starters (6) posted 5 fewer total wins. Those that had 13+ starters and a QB back (35) were +19 games.
- 66% of teams with over 16 total returning starters have as many or more wins in ’10 versus ’09
If you believe in the returning starter factor then it is a great year to be in the BIG TEN and not a fan of Iowa, Ohio State or Wisconsin as all return less than 13 starters and no starting QB. Remember, Michigan is on the BCS title contender Matrix for 2011.
Full statistical breakdown of trends, odds and best winning correlation of returning starters and QBs from 2008-2010 seasons available in Best Bets CFB Guide July 2011.
– News, notes and starter updates provided by you the readers! (email me at email@example.com to keep us UTD on the returning starters and link your site, or tweet me @cfbmatrix)
Lost Starter List
Auburn – M. McNeil (DB) dismissed Mar. ’11
BCS – J. Junker (CEO) Dismissed Mar. ’11
Florida – J. Jenkins (DB) dismissed April ’11
Ohio State – T. Pryor (QB) Quit team June ’11
UCLA – S. Hasiak (OL) Dismissed June ’11 tweeted from @cfn_ms
NC State – R. Wilson (QB) Transferred June ’11
Florida State – T. Easterling WR Leaving fro MLB Draft
Arizona State – J. Brooks DE Laving School (July)