Baylor Bears

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Baylor Bears 2011 Profile

What do we see for the Baylor Bears in 2011?  Let’s start with the base: recruiting.  The Composite Team Rank for the  Bears in 2011 was #45.  This is just 1 spot above their 2010 class and -2 spots under their ’07-’10 average.   This immediately projects a likely win total to be even with 2010.  In looking at their schedule below for the baseline recruiting win/loss modeling, it too projects 7 wins.  However, the Bears have a coach that projects as a small -.33 game effect coach over the last 3 years but wins and recruiting are both trending up.

The model predicted in March 2010 that ’10 season would be 7-5, spot on for that season.  The model was off -1 game in 2009 and right on again in 2008.  Trends, modeling and stats put 7 or fewer games as the most likely outcome for the Bears.

Links to other Baylor Bears stats

NFL/Recruiting Rank Ratios

Team Records – Odds Matrix

Returning Starters (All teams)

2011 Bears Roster/Depth Chart

2011 Baylor Schedule and SOS/EOS Breakdown

Analysis of SOS and EOS Numbers:  Nice schedule for the Bears.  A very easy OOC 3 game schedule in comparison to the rest of the BIG12.  It is ranked #9 and the recruiting rank difference is nearly double.  Anything less than a 3-0 start is a poor effort.

Conference schedule is favorable for the Bears with the huge benefit of 5 home games.  The games with Texas Tech and Missouri are especially critical.  Under normal circumstances, the home field should produce wins in one or both of those games.  However, Coach Briles, in the last 3 years, has shown no ability to create a positive home field variable.

This team should start 5-0, get everyone over-hyped and in to the top 25.  Then prepare for a possible collapse with a 0-7 to end the season but 5 wins is the bottom level of expectations.  And is it less than 22% chance of 5 or fewer wins.  Last 4 games are the make/break stretch with 2-2 being the most likely record for those four games.

Baylor Recruiting Rank Links:

Most recent year , year over year recruiting improvement and 4 year moving averages of all 120 teams recruiting rankings based on CFBMatrix national composite rankings.

Baylor Win/Recruiting Trend Chart

This win and recruiting lines, since Coach Briles took over in 2008, is trending upward.  Nice up trend and it is now mixing nearing the top of expectations.  The downside in little improvement in recruiting and thus a flattening curve.  I am not seeing it in the numbers that Coach Briles is the right man to push this team up over 7-8 wins in a season.   2011 will tell a lot, but at best they are a 7 win team, at worst 5.  All else is outside the modeled expectations.

Twitter Links

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