Recruiting & Developing NFL Draft Picks – 2012 Review

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As the 1st round of the 2012 got underway yesterday, I started adding to the profile of the modern recruiting rank era (2002 forward) and draft pick rankings since then in 2005 when the first group of recruits was eligible.  While the draft does relate back to the college football predictions it may tie together other areas of the Matrix rankings.

Bookmark the CFBMatrix as every game, trends, coach ranking, win totals and more predictions will be rolling out over the next 60 days!

For those of you reading the Matrix for the first time, you will find that everything is tied together or related in some way.  For the NFL draft I am curious as to how many draft picks correlate to CFB teams recruiting rank and how many draftees come out of schools that I have identified having net negative game effect coaching.  Simply put, how good are the overall recruiting ranks and can bad coaching bring talent, even NFL level talent down.

– Dave
Follow @CFBMatrix for odds, trends and predictions for every FBS team

CFBMatrix notes from Round 1 2012 NFL Draft

• Of the 32 draftees in Round 1 all but 7 are from teams (5) that had positive net game effect coaching over the last 4 years.  The 7 guys and 5 teams: Illinois, Iowa, Memphis, Notre Dame, Texas A&M
• #1 USC continues to dominate draft picks. 2 in Round 1 push them to 61.  That is as many as #2 LSU’s and #51 Boise’s 48 and 13 picks combined.
• 2 of 32 were from non-AQ schools (Boise St)
• 2 of 32 were from teams that were under .500 last year (BC Eagles & Syracuse)

Round 2-3

• Cincinnati overtakes Utah Utes as #1 draft total to recruiting rank ratio in the modern era of recruiting rankings (since ’02)
• Texas, Florida State, Tennessee, Auburn and UCLA led best recruiters with no draft picks in the 2012 draft to date.
• 87% of all draftees came from winning teams in 2011.

Final Review:
This is a must read for those that believe the NFL doesn’t look at winning teams or net positive game coaching isn’t a valid point

• 19 teams had losing records in 2011 and net NEGATIVE game effect coaches (Matrix rankings).  Those teams had 19 picks or 1.05 picks per team
• 7 teams had losing records but positive game effect coaches for 1.57 picks per team
• 24 teams had winning records in ’11 but net negative game effect coaches.  77 draft picks for a 3.20 average
• 23 teams had winning records in ’11 and POSITIVE game effect coaching in the last 4 years.  84 picks of 3.65 picks per team
• CFBMatrix conclusion: Recruiting produces winners and winners produce draft picks.  The wrong program and wrong coach may lessen your odds of being picked in the NFL Draft.  More research on past years is required but the results are interesting enough to give me pause to consider it.
  – Dave Bartoo/CFBMatrix

• Of the 192 total picks in the 2012 draft, 166 came from teams with winning records in 2011. (86.5%)
• 9 of the top 10 recruiters from ’02-’09 hold 9 of the top 10 spots for most draft picks in the last 7 years. (Michigan odd man out replace by Cal)
• Only Wisconsin, Iowa and Virginia have recruiting rankings above #30 from ’02-’09 and have more than 25 draft picks in the last 7 years.
• Teams with less than 20 draftees in the last 7 years with recruiting better than #30? Texas A&M, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, Ole Miss and Maryland

Current NFL Draft Pick to Recruiting Rank Ratio Matrix